H-1B 2015 Predictions: Will there be a lottery again?
There have been many expectations on H1B 2015 already. It looks like the quota would be complete even before we realize it started. In 2012, the USCIS and the State Department began applying a much stricter standard when adjudicating L1 petitions and visa applications. The result in 2013 was that substantially fewer workers came to the United States in that category.
High Scrutiny in 2013
In 2013 we saw the consequence of this heightened scrutiny: H1B visa petitions reached to annual quota limit within days of the new filing period opening because the companies that had been bringing employees in as L1B workers decided to bring new workers in as H1Bs instead.
B1 Route Shut Down
With the B1 route now shut down, look for even more demand in the H1B category. Without question, the quota will be reached within the first two days of the filing period. This means that the USCIS must hold the registration period open for five business days. Next year, since April 1st occurs on a Tuesday, this means that the registration period will remain open for seven calendar days until Monday, April 7th.
H1B 2015 Estimate
Only those petitions physically received by the USCIS during this five day window will be eligible for the lottery. Those that are delivered before April 1st, or after April 7th will be rejected outright.
This past year, we saw approximately 124,000 H1B petitions filed during the five day window. A lottery was then held to select the 85,000 (65,000 regular cap and 20,000 master’s cap) petitions that would be processed.
With the continuing crackdown on L1B petitions, as well as the virtual elimination of B1s, it is reasonable to expect 180,000 or more petitions to be filed during the window next April. This likelihood of being selected will be about 45%. It also means that it will not be possible to file a “cap subject” H1B petition after the five day filing windows close.
This is a Guest Post by Attorney Jim Gotcher, Global Immigration Partners. H1B Wiki would like to thank Jim for providing valuable information to H1BWiki visitors.
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